Once a species arrives in New Zealand and establishes successfully, there is a need to predict where it is likely to spread. Such a prediction is possible using information about what the species requires to establish a successful population. This might include a suitable climate to complete its life cycle, appropriate food and habitats.

We're developing high resolution, stochastic spread models, using stratified dispersal integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), to model invasive species spread over varied (heterogeneous) landscapes.

Several modelling methods have been used to identify climates and regions suitable for Asian gypsy moth. When overlaid with topographic and high resolution climate data, the distribution over the whole of New Zealand can be illustrated.

This model is flexible enough to simulate the dispersal of any species over the heterogeneous landscape using very simple rules.

Another important use for the dispersal model is for experiments that are impossible to carry out in real life. It can be used to simulate searching for a species in a complex environment and will help determine thresholds for detection.

It can also be used to identify the best eradication strategy, such as eradication over large contiguous areas or over many smaller foci.

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